Does it all add up? Olmsted on autism, Still’s, Pink Disease
Dan Olmsted in The Age of Autism: Still’s and Pink’s (November 9) thinks it must be more than a coincidence that Donald T., the first child diagnosed with autism by Leo Kanner, not only had Still’s disease—”a systemic form of juvenile rheumatoid arthritis (JRA) in which the immune system inexplicably attacks the body”—but also that JRA was cured with gold salts. Without stating so outright, Olmsted connects autism to JRA/Still’s disease to Pink Disease:
Because Donald’s was the first case of autism ever formally diagnosed, trying to estimate its prevalence at the time is no easy thing. Suffice it to say that autistic children were rare; let’s use the widely accepted early figure of 1 in 10,000 children (it’s more like 40 per 10,000 today).
Now, how rare is Still’s disease? It looks to be even rarer, but for simplicity’s sake let’s put it at 1 in 10,000 as well. Doing the math — 10,000 times 10,000 — suggests that having the two separate disorders just by chance is a 1-in-a-billion shot. Effectively, Donald would have been the only person in America in 1947 who just happened to have both.
And on top of that, he’s autism’s Case 1?
Oh, brother. This does not compute.
But do Olmsted’s connections “compute”—-or is he simply connecting symptoms noted in one article about one disease to another article about another one?
Olmsted notes that that the “‘peculiar, transient ’salmon-pink’ rash” that characterizes Still’s “reminds” him of Pink’s disease or Pink disease, which occurs in children and which is caused by mercury poisoning in babies. Babies who are hyper-sensitive to mercury get Pink disease, which became rare in 1947, after it was discovered that teething powder and other baby products often contained mercury. Olmsted then connects Pink disease to “the nervous child”: In a 1943 article in the Journal of Pediatrics, children with Pink disease are said to be “disturbed emotionally; they are ‘nervous children’ and … they conform to the ‘nervous child’ syndrome.” And, as Olmsted notes in his final connection in this series of disorders, “The Nervous Child” is the name of the journal in which Leo Kanner published his first study on autism, “Autistic disturbances of affective contact” (1943).
Concludes Olmsted:
Nor can I forget how Donald’s brother described the impact of the gold salts: “The nervous condition he was formerly afflicted with was gone. The proclivity toward excitability and extreme nervousness had all but cleared up.”
Olmsted ends his The Age of Autism: Still’s and Pink’s rhetorically:
I’m not suggesting Donald had Pink’s disease. But I do wonder if his remarkable recovery across the board should have raised a lot more questions a long, long time ago.
In classical rhetoric Olmsted’s “I’m not suggesting Donald had Pink’s disease” is a use of the trope called litotes, in which one affirms a positive point by using a negative statement. For instance, at John 6:37 in the Bible, “I will in no wise cast out” means “I will certainly receive.” Another example of litotes would be “not unwelcome” on a mat in front of your front door. So Olmsted’s “I’m not suggesting Donald had Pink’s disease” can be read as saying “I am most certainly suggesting Donald had Pink’s disease,” and that is why he is most certainly suggesting that Donald’s “remarkable recovery across the board should have raised a lot more questions a long, long time ago.”
A question to raise right now is, does autism = JRA/Still’s disease = Pink disease “compute”?
Or, as a researcher a few weeks ago hypothesized, does watching TV in places where it rains a lot adds up to causing autism?








3 opinions for Does it all add up? Olmsted on autism, Still’s, Pink Disease
Roy Grinker
Nov 10, 2006 at 9:34 pm
Olmsted suggests the chance of someone having both autism (at an assumed rate of 1 in 10,000) and Still’s disease (at an assumed rate of 1 in 10,000) is 1 in 1 billion (1 in 10,000 multiplied by 1 in 10,000). And he says, “Oh, brother. This does not compute.” He’s right. It does not compute. The chance of a person with autism getting Still’s disease would be 1 in 10,000 and the chance of a person with Still’s disease getting autism would be 1 in 10,000. Not 1 in 1 billion. Here’s how it works.
Say you have two decks of cards. Your chance of picking, say, a 5 of clubs from either deck is 1 in 52. Your chance of picking up a 5 of clubs from both decks simultaneously is 1 in 52 multiplied by 1 in 52, or 1 in 2,704. But let’s say I pick up a 5 of clubs in the first deck and then go to the second deck. Is the chance of getting the 5 of clubs 1 in 2,704? No, it’s not. It’s still 1 in 52. Unless Olmsted wants to believe that Still’s and Autism are caused by the same thing at exactly the same time, the tabulation is erroneous and undercuts his argument.
So, in other words, the chance that Donald would get Still’s disease on top of having autism is 1 in 10,000 (given Olmsted’s assumed figure), not 1 in 1 billion.
Autism Vox » Epitasis and Aposiopesis in Dan Olmsted
Jan 10, 2007 at 1:20 am
[…] Figaro of Figures of Speech served fresh notes that epitasis “supplements a point with a sentence that adds emphasis rather than meaning.” Indeed, Olmsted’s Age of Autism series returns again and again to the same topics: He has continually called for investigation into an autism-vaccine link, stated that there is an epidemic of autism, and noted that earlier evidence suggests that autism and “a rare and mysterious autoimmune disorder,” Still’s disease, may be connected. Epitasis thus serves Olmsted well as, by “stretching out” what one sentence, and one article, are saying into the next and by adding on phrases of similar meaning but different wording (”…..disorders on the autism “spectrum” now afflict as many as 1 in 166 children. Note: children. Where are the 1 in 166 autistic adults?”), Olmsted is able to continue to make the same points about autism—namely, that autism is an epidemic affecting today’s children that has potentially been caused by vaccines or by mercury or by some environmental agent, and that the truth about all this is not being revealed by some institution or agency (of the government). […]
Autism Vox
Jan 27, 2007 at 5:00 am
[…] Consideration of only these few points does not add up (if I may borrow Olmsted’s computational metaphor, also noted in this post) to a real critique of a book, much less a refutation of its argument. With all apologies to Olmsted, simply taking on the stance of “I disagree with what X says” does not a thesis make, in the sense of a thesis being a “main insight or idea about a text or topic…….. true but arguable (not obviously or patently true, but one alternative among several),…….. and get[s] to the heart of the text or topic being analyzed (not ….. peripheral)” (see Gordon Harvey’s Elements of the Academic Essay). […]
Have an opinion? Leave a comment: